How did I get it so wrong and yet so right on EuroPride 2022 - a series of “What If…”s

{This blog has been updated to reflect the ongoing situation in Serbia with regards to the Europride)

Something has been bothering me since the official announcement of the police ban on the official route of EuroPride 2022. One could claim it to be self-centred or self-righteous to think about oneself at such a time, but I was left with a feeling of disbelief and stupidity. After all, I had spent the previous day and that morning writing and promoting my analysis which considered it very likely Pride would happen on Saturday. After a decade of studying LGBT rights and activism and Pride in Serbia, I felt bamboozled – left with the question of what I missed. 
 
At first, I updated my analysis and wrote some initial commentary - which will appear sometime in the next few days in different venues (e.g. here). Yet in these analyses, I did not change much of my story. Speaking to friends and activists, many still told me my analysis was right, one ambassador informally told me the situation even proved me right. So this left me wondering - how did I get it so wrong, yet got it so right? There must have been something I had missed. 
 
So, I spend the rest of the day, evening, and night even wondering what happened. How is it possible that in one breath of events, the Government can issue a ban on the Pride route, the Prime minister can come to open the International Human Rights Conference and talks about the historic nature of having EuroPride in Belgrade, a group of activists loudly protest the ban whilst Ana Brnabić is presenting her speech yelling “We can have Pride”, and the organisers can speak defiantly in front of PM and immediately after her address that we WILL walk on Saturday.
 
So, I am left wondering, what if…  my analysis was right, but I was wrong to state that only Vučić stand to benefit from the uncertainty.  What if… the spectacle of yesterday and the ban, was only that. A spectacle. 
And if indeed, the ban, the protests, the anguish, the legal battle currently taking place, might all just be for show, and the question has never been as to whether Pride would take place in the inner circles of the powers that be – then what is it for? And whom is it for? 
 
Let me try and come to an understanding through a series of “What if…”, as an embrace of the Marvel series with the same name. Let me change and add things to my analysis in the form of hypotheticals to see whether we can make sense of the performances we have seen in the last few weeks. 
 
"What if…"s – alternative realities as explanations of what happened? 
 
What if Vučić has much less control over the political arena and extreme right-wing groups than we like to think? In my previous analysis, I stated that not having a EuroPride 2022 walk, would be too damaging for Vucic’s international image and thus that he would allow for Pride to happen. Indeed, I had thought that his shift in rhetoric suggested as much. But what if, Vučić could not afford a U-tun on his earlier announcement that Pride would be cancelled? What if he needed to see his statements through? Then indeed, the ban of yesterday makes sense. Because perhaps he knew that any legal appeal would have the backing of the jurisprudence of both the European Court of Human Rights and the Serbian Constitutional Court. What if, Vučić wanted to see his statement true, knowing the final result would still be as desired, yet a new actor to shift blame to has been engaged in the process? 
 
If this were to be true, the early announcement by Vučić of his intention to ban the Pride (three weeks before the event) still does not make complete sense. 
 
What if I have been wrong by focussing on Vučić, and how he benefitted from the uncertainty? What if also local organisers somehow can benefit? What if, the local organisation has been struggling with the organisation of EuroPride? What if they have been struggling to bring the promised level of Pride-related tourism to Belgrade? What if they were struggling to finance the event? If that were to be the case, then an early announcement of the intent to Pride would certainly benefit local organisers and help them save face towards the European Pride Organisers Association. Suddenly, the uncertainty of Pride and the event, as well as the threat of violence would act as a shield, a scapegoat as it were, for local organisers to deflect responsibility for any suggested failure or underperforming. 
Update: But what if we consider that Belgrade was elected precisely because it is a difficult place and would remind us that Pride is a protest we should not take for granted. Which seems to be the case as we hear everyone speaking about the events this week, the basic premise of this hypothetical already falters.
 
What if the international community has been moving away from Serbia, and the Western Balkans? What if donors have been considering LGBTI rights in the Balkans a less important or ‘sexy’ area? Perhaps the least far-fetched “What if…”, because in many conversations with activists of the region, this has been a real concern. As the context becomes less visibly aggressive, the interest of donors often tends to wane. And so, activists have been worried about the difficulties to maintain funds. If this were the case, a cynic would say that being faced with a new ban of pride – where the events of the 2009 ban, the 2010 riots, and the consecutive bans are being evoked — would be an ideal way of shifting international attention firmly onto the region as a place where the struggle for LGBT rights has not yet been achieved and more fundings would be required. An even more cynic would wonder if in this scenario, perhaps the Pride itself has been struggling year on year to gain donor support and through this renewed attention, the future of funding might be more secure. 
Update: Given the second ban and the increased risks of violence and threats that come with this Pride, one would be crazy to assume this to be a conscious driver. Yes, the regained attention of donors to this region might be a welcome unexpected consequence, but most likely not a driver of what is happening. And we always need to remind ourself that even when things do not always make sense, we should not give in to the level of cynicism where we questions peoples good intentions. 
 
Yet somehow still the events that I witnessed yesterday do not add up. How Ana Brnabić stood in front of a protesting crowd, making statements of how EuroPride in Belgrade is not only historic as the first EuroPride outside the European Economic Area and in South-eastern Europe but also is an event that redraws the boundaries and imagining of Europe. She also stood in front of this crowd to thank organisers for their cooperation in the last few weeks and for making brave decisions in these weeks. Here it is where my confusion continues – what brave decisions have been made. Yes, the locations of the concerts had been agreed upon in the past, but one would think that given that the ban has been issued, rather than brave decisions being made, the dialogue between the state and organisers was in a stalemate. Equally, the ability of the organisers to declare without question that a walk will be had on Saturday, just seconds after Ana Brnabić had left the stage, raises questions. 
 
What if the ban, the speech by Ana, and the defiance of activists are all a performance? What if, behind the scenes, a secret deal had been made between some of the organisers and the state? What if, they already agreed on a plan B, they already agreed on an alternative route and both agreed that the spectacle of the ban and court cases is a road that is beneficial to both? Perhaps again, it is a scenario a cynic would think of or consider, but it is not too far-fetched. One of the reasons why I was so confident that Pride would happen is that I had assumed state and organisers would come to a compromise in which, just like the concerts, they would move the route of the parade. So what if, this happened rather than announcing it as a compromise, they also agreed to keep playing the political theatre that had started three weeks earlier. In the past, in 2014, a similar situation occurred. Whilst Vučić and the state were actively raising doubts in public speeches as to whether or not the Pride would happen, local organisers had been told already by sources within the government and the state that the decision to allow Pride to happen had already been taken two weeks prior. As such, what if it is not only the history of the Pride bans that is repeating itself but so too is the history and politics of backdoor deals and public political theatre?
 
Of course, then the load protests yesterday against Ana Brnabić opening the International Human Rights Conference makes a lot of sense as part of the political spectacle on display. Yet, the sincere anger, frustration and sadness felt by many of the activists and some of the organisers are somehow still something to explore. It still leaves the question, if a secret deal scenario was indeed the case, what then happened? 
 
So, finally, what if, there have been internal struggles and disagreements within the LGBT activists’ community, and maybe even the local organising team of the Europride? What if only a select group of people were informed of the secret deal? What if other organisers did not know that the ban was only for show? That would definitely explain the strong and powerful display of protest against Ana Brnabić, but it would also explain how some of the core local organisers were angry and part of the protesting crows, whilst others were standing at the front of the room, close to Ana Brnabić, ready to invite her on to the stage, seemingly calm and composed. It might of course be, that they are simply extremely able to keep their emotions in check, but still, a cynic would wonder. In such a scenario, there is of course a lot to ponder on the future of the Pride movement in Serbia. Will there be a shift in who organises Pride, is there a desire to have a different way of organising Pride and take it away from cooperation with the state that emerged since to make Pride happen? Is there a desire amongst the newer generation of activists to make Pride a protest, uncoupled and unapologetic against the state? 
 
Of course, I still like to believe that none of the hypothetical scenarios bears any truth, that they are simply fruits of conspiracy theories – yet somehow each and every one of them seem to bring something to the story, a piece of the puzzle that was previously missing. There remain still too many unknowns and we might never fully understand the contradictions that emerged yesterday, but one is still left to wonder… 

Yet, equally, listening to activists throughout this week, I am once again reminded that whilst we sometimes need to ask difficult questions, we should not let these questions distract us from what is really happening: and that is the violence directed by the state and opponents to the Pride Organisers and the LGBTQ people in Serbia, the Western Balkan region and Europe more widely.